Determination of production losses related to lumpy skin disease among cattle in Turkey and analysis using SEIR epidemic model.

BACKGROUND: Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD) is an infectious disease induced by the Capripoxvirus, causing epidemics in Turkey and several countries worldwide and inducing significant economic losses. Although this disease occurs in Turkish cattle every year, it is a notifiable disease. In this study, LSD in Turkey was modelled using the Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, and Recovered (SEIR) epidemiological model, and production losses were estimated with predictions of the course of the disease. The animal population was categorized into four groups: Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, and Recovered, and model parameters were obtained. The SEIR model was formulated with an outbreak calculator simulator applied for demonstration purposes. RESULTS: Production losses caused by the LSD epidemic and the SEIR model's predictions on the disease's course were evaluated. Although 1282 cases were identified in Turkey during the study period, the prevalence of LSD was calculated as 4.51%, and the mortality rate was 1.09%. The relationship between the disease duration and incubation period was emphasized in the simulated SEIR model to understand the dynamics of LSD. Early detection of the disease during the incubation period significantly affected the peak time of the disease. According to the model, if the disease was detected during the incubation period, the sick animal's time could transmit the disease (Tinf) was calculated as 2.66 days. Production loss from LSD infection was estimated at US $ 886.34 for dairy cattle and the US $ 1,066.61 for beef cattle per animal. CONCLUSION: Detection of LSD infection during the incubation period changes the course of the disease and may reduce the resulting economic loss.

Farmers' preference and willingness to pay for a multivalent lumpy skin disease and Rift Valley fever novel vaccine: A discrete choice experiment in the Free State province, South Africa.

Rift Valley fever and lumpy skin disease are infectious ruminant diseases that are endemic in most African countries. The most cost-effective method of prevention and control is through annual vaccination. However, unlike lumpy skin disease, annual vaccination against Rift Valley fever is not practiced by many farmers due to its sporadic occurrences and shortcoming of the existing vaccines. This necessitates development of novel vaccines that would provide dual protection against a Rift Valley fever and a more prevalent disease. In this study, a discrete choice experiment was undertaken to guide vaccine development by examining the value smallholder livestock farmers place on different vaccine attributes and related attribute levels. The attributes considered are target-species, thermotolerance, nature of the vaccine, efficacy and price. The study was carried out with 164 smallholder livestock farmers in the Free State province. Results indicate that thermostaility is not a major deciding attribute to smallholder farmer's choice of vaccine. Farmers prefer multivalent vaccines, which are highly efficacious with about 90-100 % efficacy levels. Farmers were found to be heterogeneous in preference. The heterogeneity is explained by socio-economic factors such as type of livestock owned, income level, gender and perceived disease risk. Farmers were also willing to pay for preferred attribute levels. However, for less favourable levels such as multispecies, female farmers were willing to accept a lower compensation than males. These findings present a favourable potential for development of a novel multivalent vaccine and also provide vaccine research and development scientists with evidence based knowledge for development of vaccines that cater for the needs of smallholder farmers.

Lumpy skin disease, an emerging transboundary viral disease: A review.

Lumpy skin disease is an emerging bovine viral disease, which is endemic in most African countries and some Middle East ones, and the elevated risk of the spread of disease into the rest of Asia and Europe should be considered. The recent rapid spread of disease in currently disease-free countries indicates the importance of understanding the limitations and routes of distribution. The causative agent, Capripoxvirus, can also induce sheeppox and goatpox. The economic significance of these diseases is of great concern, given that they threaten international trade and could be used as economic bioterrorism agents. The distribution of capripoxviruses seems to be expanding due to limited access to effective vaccines and poverty within farming communities. This is largely due to the economic effects of the Covid-19 pandemic and the imposition of crippling sanctions in endemic regions, as well as an increase in the legal and illegal trade of live animals and animal products, and also global climate change. The present review is designed to provide existing information on the various aspects of the disease such as its clinicopathology, transmission, epidemiology, diagnosis, prevention and control measures, and the potential role of wildlife in the further spread of disease.

Economic cost of lumpy skin disease outbreaks in three Balkan countries: Albania, Bulgaria and the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (2016-2017).

Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is an emerging viral disease that was detected for the first time in the Balkan Peninsula in Greece in 2015. In April 2016, there was a reoccurrence in Greece and the spread of the disease for the first time into Bulgaria, the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Serbia, Kosovo, Albania and Montenegro. The veterinary services of the countries responded with different strategies to control the disease, mostly based on mass vaccination campaigns and diverse stamping out approaches. During 2017, the epidemic was mostly controlled except for outbreaks reported in Albania, Greece and the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. The study aims to quantify the cost of disease and control measures in three selected Balkan countries, that is, Albania, Bulgaria and the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, which were differently affected by the disease, had different animal production structures and implemented different control strategies. The total cost for the three countries was 20.9 million Euro (EUR 20.9 m), mostly incurred in 2016 (EUR 16.6 m), when the disease was spreading throughout the Balkan region. In 2017 (data until October), the cost was EUR 4.0 m, mainly due to vaccination costs. Bulgaria was the country with the highest total cost at EUR 8.6 m, followed by the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (EUR 6.7 m) and Albania (EUR 5.3 m). According to our data, the average cost per affected herd in 2016 was EUR 869, EUR 6,994 and EUR 3,071 in Albania, Bulgaria and the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, respectively. The cost per animal in the affected herds was EUR 539, 147 and 258, respectively. The results from this study are useful to understand the cost of LSD outbreaks in the region, which might contribute to improve the surveillance and control of the disease.

Economic impact of lumpy skin disease and cost effectiveness of vaccination for the control of outbreaks in Ethiopia.

Lumpy skin disease (LSD), an infectious viral disease of cattle, causes considerable financial losses in livestock industry of affected countries. A questionnaire survey with the objectives of determining direct economic losses of LSD (mortality loss, milk loss, draft loss) and treatment costs (medication and labour cost) per affected herd, and assessing the cost effectiveness of vaccination as a means for LSD control was carried out in the central and north-western parts of Ethiopia. From a total of 4430 cattle (in 243 herds) surveyed, 941 animals (in 200 herds) were reported to be infected. The overall morbidity and mortality at animal level were 21.2% and 4.5%, and at herd level these were 82.3% and 24.3%. There was a significant difference in animal level morbidity and mortality between categories of animals. Over 94% of the herd owners ranked LSD as a big or very big problem for cattle production. A large proportion (92.2%) of the herd owners indicated that LSD affects cattle marketing. A median loss of USD 375 (USD 325 in local Zebu and USD 1250 in Holstein-Friesian local Zebu cross cattle) was estimated per dead animal. Median losses per affected lactating cow were USD 141 (USD 63 in local Zebu cows and USD 216 in Holstein-Friesian local Zebu cross cows) and, USD 36 per affected ox. Diagnosis and medication cost per affected animal were estimated at USD 5. The median total economic loss of an LSD outbreak at herd level was USD 1176 (USD 489 in subsistence farm and USD 2735 in commercial farm). At herd level, the largest component of the economic loss was due to mortality (USD 1000) followed by milk loss (USD 120). LSD control costs were the least contributor to herd level losses. The total herd level economic losses in the commercial farm type were significantly higher than in the subsistence farm type. The financial analysis showed a positive net profit of USD 136 (USD 56 for subsistence farm herds and USD 283 for commercial herds) per herd due to LSD vaccine investment. It should be noted that only the noticeable direct costs and treatment costs associated with the disease were considered in the study. Generally, vaccination is economically effective and should be encouraged.

Epidemiological and Molecular Studies on Lumpy Skin Disease Outbreaks in Turkey during 2014-2015.

This study was carried out to explore epidemiological and molecular features of lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) in the Aegean, Central Anatolian and Mediterranean regions of Turkey, to evaluate the risk factors associated with LSDV infection and to investigate the financial impact of LSD and potential role of the Culicoides spp. in the transmission of LSDV. Samples were obtained from 611 cattle, each from different farms, and each clinically suspected to be infected with LSDV during the months of July 2014 and June 2015. Culicoides spp. were trapped from April to June 2015. Genetic characterization of the local LSDV field isolates was conducted by sequencing G-protein-coupled chemokine receptor gene segment. Real-time PCR high-resolution melting analysis was used for distinguishing each type of capripoxviruses. Viral DNA was detected in 448 of the 611 animals and Culicoides midges. Three hundred and ninety-three of the 448 affected farms were surveyed. The morbidity and mortality rates detected were 12.3% and 6.4%, respectively. Phylogenetic analysis showed that the field isolates in this study were clustered together with other Africa and Middle East isolates. Genotyping of isolates from infected cattle has revealed the presence of LSDV. A generalized mixed linear model showed that there were positive associations between LSDV infection, European breeds, small-sized family-type farms and nearness of farm to a lake. The financial cost of disease presence in surveyed cattle farms was estimated to be 72.75 GBP per head. The sequence analysis of the mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase subunit I gene showed that the species of Culicoides in LSDV-positive pools was Culicoides punctatus. Detection of LSDV in Culicoides punctatus suggests that it may have played a role in transmitting LSDV. Furthermore, movement of infected animals into disease-free areas increases the risk of the transmission of LSD. Control strategies for LSDV infection should include consideration of the risk factors identified in this study.

Lumpy Skin Disease in Jordan: Disease Emergence, Clinical Signs, Complications and Preliminary-associated Economic Losses.

The objectives of this study are to report the emergence of lumpy skin disease (LSD) in Jordan and associated clinical signs, complications and preliminary economic losses. In mid-April, 2013, two adult dairy cattle developed clinical signs suggestive of LSD and were confirmed as positive by PCR. The two cases were in Bani Kenanah district, Irbid governorate, on the Jordanian border of Israel and Syria. The disease spread rapidly to all the districts of Irbid governorate. During the month following the emergence of the disease, data were collected related to the epidemiology of the disease and the numbers of affected cattle on the premises. Forty-one dairy cattle holdings were surveyed. The morbidity rate ranged from 3% to 100%, (Mean = 35.1%, SD ±28.5%). The mortality rate ranged from 0% to 20%, (Mean = 1.3%, SD ±4.4%). The case fatality rate ranged from 0% to 100%, (Mean = 6.2%, SD ±22%). The overall morbidity rate was 26%, mortality rate 1.9% and case fatality rate 7.5%. Skin nodules, anorexia, decreased milk production and decreased body weight were common clinical signs, while mastitis and myiasis were seen as complications in a few affected animals. Decreased body weight ranged from 0% to 80%, (Mean = 23.1%, SD ±15.7%). Decreased milk production ranged from 0% to 100%, (Mean = 51.5%, SD ±22.2%). Affected cattle were treated mainly with broad-spectrum antibiotics and anti-inflammatory drugs. The cost of treatment ranged from 0 to 84.3 British Pound/animal, (Mean = 27.9 GBP, SD ±22.5 GBP). LSD continues to spread through the Middle East region and poses a serious threat to the rest of Asia and Europe. International collaboration and communication is warranted to prevent the further spread of the disease to the rest of Asia and Europe.

Epidemiological aspects and financial impact of lumpy skin disease in Ethiopia.

The financial cost of clinical Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD) and the financial benefit of its control through vaccination were studied based on questionnaire survey in Oromia region of Ethiopia from the perspective of livestock farmers. Production loss impacts for local zebu cattle were compared with those of Holstein Friesian (HF)/crossbred cattle in the study area. Annual cumulative incidence of LSD infection in HF/crossbred and local zebu cattle were 33.93% (95% CI: 30.92-36.94) and 13.41% (95% CI: 12.6-14.25) respectively and significantly different (p<0.05). Annual mortality was also significantly higher in HF/crossbred 7.43% (95% CI: 5.76-9.10) than in local zebu cattle 1.25% (95% CI: 0.98-1.52). The annual financial cost was calculated as the sum of the average production losses due to morbidity and mortality arising from milk loss, beef loss, traction power loss, and treatment and vaccination costs at the herd level. The financial cost in infected herds was estimated to be USD 6.43 (5.12-8) per head for local zebu and USD 58 (42-73) per head for HF/crossbred cattle. A partial budget analysis was used to estimate the financial benefit of an annual vaccination program in both the local zebu and HF/crossbred cattle farming systems. The marginal rate of return (MRR) gained from this control intervention was estimated to be 34 (3400%) and the net benefit per head was USD 1 for local zebu and USD 19 for HF/crossbred cattle. Vaccination thus enabled financial costs due to LSD to be reduced by 17% per head in local zebu herds and 31% per head in HF/crossbred herds. These results could provide guidance to producers and the government in their endeavors to control the disease.